Bitcoin remains below major realized price levels, where underwater holders may sell aggressively once it recovers closer to break-even.
Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed by almost 20% this month, but despite the current bullish setup, the threat of rejection near overhead resistance remains significant.
In fact, CryptoQuant found that the crypto asset must reclaim and hold $88,880 before the market can confirm a sustainable bottom formation.
Trapped Buyers Await
According to the latest analysis by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s current price of around $80,000 is still trading below several crucial realized price levels tied to underwater holder cohorts, which continue to act as overhead resistance.
The first major level stands at $88,880 for holders who bought between three and six months ago, followed by $93,450 for the 12-to-18-month cohort. The largest resistance zone is at $111,850, which is linked to holders from the six-to-12-month group, sitting roughly 29% above the current spot price.
CryptoQuant explained that these levels represent break-even exit points for investors who are still holding unrealized losses and may look to sell once prices recover. Its findings reveal that for a market bottom to be confirmed, Bitcoin must move above $88,880 and maintain that level instead of briefly spiking higher and falling back.
Until then, rallies between $85,000 and $88,000 are likely to face selling pressure from buyers who entered the market between November 2025 and February 2026.
A similar sentiment was echoed by analyst Ali Martinez, who had recently flagged that Bitcoin’s present trajectory resembled the 2022 bear market bottom formation. Martinez pointed to similarities with the period when the crypto asset briefly recovered to around $25,000 in August and September 2022 before experiencing another major decline that eventually dragged the asset below $16,000.
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Based on this pattern, he indicated that Bitcoin could face another rejection around the $80,000 to $82,000 range before potentially falling below $55,000 if the market follows a similar trajectory. The analyst also highlighted the strong sell walls between $79,000 and $80,000, an area where the asset has already been rejected multiple times in recent weeks.
Crypto Market Positioning
Derivatives data also reflected the cautious mood in the market. Experts at Bitunix noted that all eyes are on liquidity absorption around the $80,000 region. In a statement to CryptoPotato, they revealed that open interest has declined 5.13% over the past 24 hours. At the same time, funding rates are still negative overall during the past week, which shows bearish positioning is still present, but the magnitude of those negative readings has started to narrow.
“This suggests that overheated leverage conditions are beginning to cool, while bearish hedging sentiment has eased somewhat. Even so, overall market positioning remains cautious.”
