Here’s why this analyst believes BTC could be on the verge of a more profound decline.
Bitcoin went through an impressive rally from last week’s FOMC meeting, when it dipped below $75,000, to May 6, when it surged to almost $83,000 for the first time since late January.
After gaining roughly $8,000 in less than a week, though, the bears stepped up and pushed it south by over three grand. According to Ali Martinez, this means that BTC has slipped below a crucial support.
Below $80.3K
In a blog post on X, the analyst with over 165,000 followers noted that the $80,300 level is bitcoin’s most “important” line, which now serves as resistance since the asset trades below it. He justified this narrative by indicating that this is the average cost basis of new whales (large entities that bought in the last 155 days).
“When BTC trades below this average cost basis, these whales are holding at a loss. Yesterday, bitcoin pushed to a high of $82,800, but it has since dropped back below this $80,300 level,” he added.
If the cryptocurrency remains stuck below this coveted level, these newly entered whales are likely to be incentivized to sell just to break even and avoid further losses. If this panic is to occur, it can create a wave of selling pressure that pushes the asset “much lower.”
In the opposite scenario, it could signal that the selling pressure is exhausted if bitcoin manages to flip $80,300 into solid support. Once the whales are in the green, they “stop selling and start holding for higher targets, which is exactly how new uptrends begin,” Martinez explained.
Risk Appetite Rockets
In a separate post, Martinez warned that the risk appetite for the largest cryptocurrency has hit its highest level in almost a year. Citing data from all major exchanges, he noted that the Estimated Leverage Ratio has reached a 2026 peak, indicating a “significant jump in risk appetite, as traders increasingly rely on borrowed capital to position for the next move.”
He cautioned that high leverage is a “double-edged sword,” as it can accelerate a bullish breakout, but it can also make the market highly sensitive to cascading liquidations if the price takes a sudden turn. Similar occurrences took place during the early October wipeout, when over $19 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated within a day as the market tumbled.
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Risk appetite for Bitcoin $BTC is at its highest level in nearly a year.
Across all major futures exchanges, the Estimated Leverage Ratio has surged to its highest level since 2025. This indicates a significant jump in risk appetite, as traders increasingly rely on borrowed… pic.twitter.com/OJlMUEaTzV
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 7, 2026
