Major exchanges saw steep declines. Binance, for one, has shed $25 billion in volume since March.
Bitcoin has struggled to surge past $80,000 despite multiple attempts. Interestingly, its spot trading volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since the end of the previous bear market and have returned to levels last seen in September 2023.
The decline continued throughout April, indicating a clear slowdown in activity and a sharp reduction in overall market participation, according to the latest findings from analyst Darkfost.
Traders Stepping Away?
The drop is evident across major exchanges. Since March, Binance, which still holds the largest share of trading activity, has recorded a decline of roughly $25 billion in volumes within a month. The trend extends beyond a single platform. For instance, Gate.io witnessed its volumes cut in half, which is a $13 billion decrease. OKX, on the other hand, reported a drop of around $6 billion.
The contraction comes against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop that continues to weigh on sentiment. Ongoing developments surrounding the conflict with Iran have not provided clarity, while concerns over continued inflation have strengthened.
In this context, the Federal Reserve is seen as having limited room to accelerate monetary easing at the current FOMC meeting.
As a result, Darkfost stated that investors remain hesitant to build long-term spot exposure, which reflects a lack of conviction in the medium-term outlook. While declining volumes indicate weaker short-term momentum and reduced interest, the return to bear-market activity levels is also often where “new opportunities begin to emerge.”
Bullish Projections
Another crypto analyst, Ali Martinez, flagged signs of a potential turnaround on BTC’s monthly chart, as he highlighted a “Morning Star” pattern forming. He explained that this setup signals moving from fear to uncertainty and then toward stronger buying pressure.
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Similar patterns have appeared three times over the past few years, each followed by notable gains, including a 34% rise in 2023, a sharp 212% rally in early 2024, and another near-34% increase later that year. According to him, as long as Bitcoin stays above the $73,000 level, the broader trend continues to lean upward.
The notion of opportunity is echoed in increasingly optimistic projections. Maelstrom CIO and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently predicted that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by year-end as rising wartime spending boosts global liquidity.
Speaking at Bitcoin Vegas 2026, he explained that higher defense budgets, increased borrowing, and monetary expansion are changing conditions in the asset’s favor. Hayes added that AI-driven credit contraction and changes in banking regulations could inject significant liquidity into the system, thereby outweighing economic pressures.
Despite ongoing tensions like the US-Iran conflict, he said markets remain focused on liquidity trends rather than panic.
