XRP is trading at $1.45 as the new week opens. It is quietly staging one of the more interesting recoveries it has managed since the cycle peak.
While Bitcoin’s recent push has provided a rising macro tide, XRP is pressing against the convergence of the 100-day MA and the descending channel’s upper boundary simultaneously, with an RSI that is building genuine momentum for the first time in weeks. How the asset handles the next 48 hours may be the most technically significant test the pair has faced this entire corrective phase.
Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair
For the first time since the failed mid-April breakout attempt, XRP is testing the descending channel’s upper boundary with an RSI that has climbed to the 60–65 range and is still far from overbought. The price is now sitting directly at the 100-day MA at approximately $1.40, which converges with the channel’s upper rail at the $1.45 level. This area is the most technically loaded resistance zone on the chart.
A sustained daily close above $1.50 would represent both a channel breakout and a moving average recapture simultaneously, which is the kind of dual confirmation that prior attempts lacked. From there, the first meaningful target is the $1.80 supply zone where the 200-day MA is also located. On the downside, the $1.20 February demand zone remains the critical support level that the market should hold at all costs to avoid a continuation of the bearish trend.
The BTC Pair
Against Bitcoin, the picture remains structurally bearish, but the RSI has dropped and rebounded from approximately 25 while also demonstrating a clear bullish divergence, marked by the red line on the chart. The pair is trading at around 1,760 sats, below the 1,800 sat broken support level but within the gravitational pull of this zone. The lower channel boundary declining toward 1,600 sats below is the nearby support element if the market drops lower.
Oversold RSI readings and bullish divergence at this extreme do not automatically guarantee a structural reversal, but they have historically preceded, at a minimum, a relief bounce. On the upside, the 100-day MA at ~2000 sats and the 200-day MA at ~2,100 sats remain the structural ceilings that define any genuine recovery above 1,800 sats. For now, the BTC ratio tells the same story it has for months: XRP continues to underperform Bitcoin, and the only development worth noting is that selling may be approaching a short-term exhaustion point.
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